• 微博
  • 微信微信二维码

广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

Rodriguez:我们正在经历一场“完美风暴”

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月18日 11:26:32
【字体:

时时彩哪种玩法比较稳定平台直属招商客服QQ/微信【570824522】最高返水100反9快,【在线开户网址um698.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯5,10分欢乐生肖,,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。Rodriguez:我们正在经历一场“完美风暴”

历史最差!中国女排1-4古巴 U23世锦赛无缘六强 新疆男篮亚冠杯冠军也全靠外援? 为何亚当斯和布拉切不是MVP? 悄然之间的转变! 这是波波维奇的最后一搏 英超-阿圭罗戴帽热苏斯破门 曼城6-0大胜登榜首 身高不输姚明之人将代表中国台北参加亚冠杯, 能称霸亚洲内线? 中国男篮和全运会的比赛都结束了, 姚明的双国家队真的成功了? 中国足球新希望:25岁中国足坛名宿之子彻底爆发! 高清图:莱万激情撞胸穆勒 罗本拥里贝里喜滋滋 放走詹皇也无所谓?那骑士不必走这4步,得这人勇士可是真怕! 姚明或允许马布里执教中国男篮, 不经CBA就能成国家队教练? 塔尔德利缺阵鲁能进攻受阻 进球被吹马加特无奈 挖世界级球星后请德国名帅,这支中超队还是无缘前四 残酷!扎哈维即将打破进球纪录,原保持者却被上港放弃 詹皇乐坏了!名嘴:骑士将重新规划进攻,勒夫重回森林狼巅峰状态! 重量级拳击世纪大战一触即发,张君龙:我仍然在涨拳随时恭候强敌

(那)(些)(看)(到)(这)(个)(结)(果)(的)(公)(众)(说)(:“为)(什)(么)(我)(要)(向)(那)(些)(不)(能)(跑)(赢)(、甚)(至)(不)(能)(识)(别)(出)(重)(大)(投)(机)(机)(会)(的)(管)(理)(者)(支)(付)(更)(高)(的)(佣)(金)(呢)(?我)(不)(妨)(直)(接)(满)(仓)(,或)(者)(投)(资)(ETF或)(指)(数)(基)(金)(。”
2007年)(以)(来)(,指)(数)(和)(被)(动)(策)(略)(从)(7-9%升)(到)(近)(40%。指)(数)(都)(是)(按)(照)(资)(本)(权)(重)(配)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(当)(你)(把)(资)(产)(从)(主)(动)(型)(投)(资)(经)(理)(那)(里)(转)(移)(到)(购)(买)(指)(数)(的)(被)(动)(型)(投)(资)(经)(理)(那)(里)(时)(,越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(钱)(买)(入)(越)(来)(越)(少)(的)(股)(票)(。
这)(我)(们)(以)(前)(见)(过)(的)(。七)(十)(年)(代)(初)(,如)(果)(没)(有)(买)(入)(漂)(亮)(五)(十)(,你)(就)(跑)(输)(,而)(钱)(持)(续)(进)(跑)(赢)(的)(产)(品)(。如)(果)(你)(在)(1998年)(是)(成)(长)(型)(投)(资)(经)(理)(,而)(你)(没)(买)(带)(“网)(”的)(股)(票)(,你)(也)(会)(跑)(输)(,然)(后)(失)(业)(。越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(钱)(买)(入)(越)(来)(越)(少)(的)(股)(票)(。现)(在)(FANG股)(票)(的)(情)(况)(就)(是)(这)(样)(。但)(不)(论)(哪)(种)(情)(况)(,这)(样)(的)(趋)(势)(都)(未)(曾)(圆)(满)(落)(幕)(过)(。
一)(旦)(市)(场)(崩)(溃)((而)(历)(史)(上)(总)(是)(发)(生)(),ETF和)(指)(数)(基)(金)(只)(会)(起)(到)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(的)(作)(用)(,因)(为)(恐)(惧)(会)(降)(临)(这)(个)(市)(场)(。对)(于)(资)(产)(比)(例)(更)(高)(的)(指)(数)(基)(金)(和)(ETF,当)(投)(资)(者)(按)(下)(“卖)(出)(”按)(钮)(的)(时)(候)(,卖)(给)(谁)(呢)(?指)(数)(基)(金)(没)(有)(现)(金)(储)(备)(,而)(主)(动)(型)(产)(品)(已)(经)(在)(缩)(水)(,并)(且)(出)(于)(业)(务)(风)(险)(的)(考)(量)(,大)(部)(分)(主)(动)(产)(品)(根)(本)(不)(敢)(保)(持)(太)(高)(流)(动)(性)(。
所)(以)(我)(说)(我)(们)(在)(经)(历)(一)(场)(“完)(美)(风)(暴)(”。
问)(:《华)(尔)(街)(日)(报)(》有)(报)(道)(瑞)(士)(和)(南)(非)(央)(行)(将)(储)(备)(配)(到)(股)(票)(里)(,在)(你)(看)(来)(其)(他)(投)(资)(者)(该)(如)(何)(应)(对)(,毕)(竟)(他)(们)(既)(能)(印)(钱)(,还)(没)(有)(业)(绩)(压)(力)(?
答)(:作)(为)(专)(业)(投)(资)(者)(,我)(最)(不)(想)(做)(的)(事)(是)(将)(资)(本)(分)(配)(到)(政)(府)(涉)(及)(的)(领)(域)(。政)(府)(主)(导)(的)(决)(策)(中)(,错)(误)(的)(决)(策)(几)(乎)(不)(会)(得)(到)(惩)(罚)(。比)(如)(多)(德)(·弗)(兰)(克)(、保)(尔)(森)(、伯)(南)(克)(和)(格)(林)(斯)(潘)(,他)(们)(在)(上)(次)(危)(机)(发)(生)(之)(前)(一)(无)(所)(知)(,还)(帮)(了)(倒)(忙)(。他)(们)(付)(了)(多)(少)(罚)(金)(?没)(有)(!他)(们)(照)(样)(保)(住)(了)(自)(己)(的)(养)(老)(金)(。
央)(行)(配)(置)(资)(本)(时)(,不)(花)(费)(一)(分)(资)(金)(成)(本)(,他)(们)(摧)(毁)(的)(是)(资)(本)(资)(产)(定)(价)(机)(制)(,以)(及)(可)(比)(性)(,而)(且)(这)(种)(摧)(毁)(还)(在)(继)(续)(。
作)(为)(一)(个)(坚)(定)(的)(逆)(向)(投)(资)(者)(,我)(最)(不)(想)(做)(的)(事)(就)(是)(与)(政)(府)(为)(伍)(,因)(为)(他)(们)(即)(使)(决)(策)(出)(现)(严)(重)(问)(题)(也)(不)(必)(受)(到)(惩)(罚)(。
问)(:你)(在)(FPA践)(行)(价)(值)(投)(资)(这)(么)(多)(年)(,特)(别)(是)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(,你)(觉)(得)(有)(哪)(些)(改)(变)(么)(?
答)(:这)(个)(问)(题)(我)(也)(问)(过)(自)(己)(很)(多)(次)(。
本)(世)(纪)(以)(前)(,这)(个)(行)(业)(虽)(然)(也)(起)(起)(伏)(伏)(,但)(决)(策)(和)(信)(息)(传)(递)(都)(比)(现)(在)(慢)(得)(多)(。现)(在)(虽)(然)(电)(子)(技)(术)(和)(互)(联)(网)(的)(发)(展)(加)(速)(了)(信)(息)(的)(传)(播)(速)(度)(,但)(我)(不)(认)(为)(决)(策)(也)(因)(此)(而)(更)(高)(明)(;仅)(仅)(是)(速)(度)(加)(快)(了)(,而)(耐)(心)(却)(大)(大)(缩)(短)(了)(。
1998年)(之)(前)(的)(十)(一)(二)(年)(,我)(一)(直)(操)(作)(FPACapitalFund,现)(金)(仓)(位)(也)(就)(1%或)(者)(2%,有)(时)(甚)(至)(连)(1%都)(不)(到)(。再)(比)(如)(短)(债)(只)(要)(10%左)(右)(,基)(本)(就)(铁)(定)(跑)(输)(大)(盘)(1000基)(点)(左)(右)(。1998年)(那)(会)(儿)(,所)(有)(的)(投)(顾)(都)(奉)(行)(满)(仓)(主)(义)(。
那)(年)(春)(天)(我)(就)(站)(出)(来)(说)(股)(价)(太)(贵)(了)(,而)(且)(争)(取)(到)(了)(7%-9%的)(流)(动)(性)(,最)(高)(可)(以)(30%现)(金)(。我)(当)(时)(真)(的)(是)(跟)(每)(一)(位)(客)(户)(去)(争)(。到)(了)(2000年)(春)(,我)(躲)(过)(了)(一)(劫)(,但)(管)(理)(规)(模)(还)(是)(缩)(掉)(一)(半)(,而)(且)(被)(炒)(掉)(。到)(了)(2007-2009年)(我)(做)(了)(更)(好)(的)(准)(备)(和)(沟)(通)(,危)(机)(时)(拿)(着)(45%的)(现)(金)(。
危)(机)(最)(初)(发)(生)(时)(,没)(有)(人)(在)(意)(你)(站)(在)(那)(一)(边)(。哪)(怕)(你)(就)(是)(刚)(巧)(路)(过)(,也)(会)(被)(逮)(个)(正)(着)((受)(到)(影)(响)()。
事)(后)(警)(方)(只)(会)(说)(:“噢)(,你)(不)(应)(该)(在)(这)(里)(。”嗯)(,就)(跟)(遭)(遇)(车)(祸)(时)(一)(样)(的)(待)(遇)(。到)(了)(第)(二)(和)(第)(三)(阶)(段)(,真)(正)(的)(价)(值)(才)(会)(显)(示)(出)(区)(别)(。这)(是)(我)(的)(基)(金)(在)(2007-2009年)(及)(之)(后)(发)(生)(的)(事)(。
45%的)(现)(金)(持)(有)(水)(平)(对)(客)(户)(来)(说)(是)(一)(个)(很)(难)(接)(受)(的)(策)(略)(。我)(就)(有)(一)(个)(客)(户)(说)(过)(:“请)(让)(我)(的)(账)(户)(保)(持)(满)(仓)(投)(资)(,然)(后)(做)(跟)(别)(人)(一)(样)(的)(事)(。”我)(回)(答)(:“不)(,你)(要)(求)(我)(付)(出)(的)(代)(价)(太)(高)(了)(。满)(仓)(投)(资)(管)(理)(你)(的)(钱)(会)(损)(害)(我)(的)(思)(考)(能)(力)(,给)(我)(的)(其)(他)(客)(户)(带)(来)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。我)(很)(抱)(歉)(,这)(个)(代)(价)(太)(高)(了)(。”然)(后)(就)(问)(他)(:“您)(需)(要)(我)(把)(钱)(退)(回)(到)(您)(的)(哪)(个)(账)(户)(?”他)(就)(说)(:“让)(我)(考)(虑)(一)(下)(。”第)(二)(天)(他)(的)(回)(答)(则)(是)(:“好)(吧)(,你)(可)(以)(灵)(活)(投)(资)(。”但)(在)(那)(场)(危)(机)(中)(,我)(还)(是)(遭)(遇)(了)(50%的)(赎)(回)(。
回)(顾)(当)(时)(的)(这)(两)(个)(主)(要)(的)(周)(期)(,价)(值)(型)(投)(资)(经)(理)(要)(在)(目)(前)(正)(在)(实)(施)(的)(政)(策)(下)(维)(持)(流)(动)(性)(要)(困)(难)(得)(多)(。这)(是)(人)(类)(历)(史)(上)(最)(糟)(糕)(的)(财)(政)(和)(货)(币)(政)(策)(。
如)(果)(我)(还)(在)(投)(资)(行)(业)(中)(,尽)(管)(我)(经)(历)(过)(赎)(回)(时)(的)(痛)(苦)(,如)(今)(的)(流)(动)(性)(配)(置)(仍)(会)(保)(持)(在)(60%以)(上)(。
问)(:你)(对)(现)(在)(很)(受)(欢)(迎)(的)(聪)(明)(贝)(塔)(产)(品)(,特)(别)(是)(那)(些)(包)(括)(了)(基)(于)(Fama-French三)(因)(素)(模)(型)(的)(定)(量)(驱)(动)(价)(值)(策)(略)(的)(产)(品)(怎)(么)(看)(?如)(果)(投)(资)(者)(希)(望)(看)(到)(的)(是)(一)(个)(价)(值)(型)(量)(化)(组)(合)(,他)(们)(应)(该)(关)(注)(哪)(些)(?
答)(:我)(从)(未)(看)(到)(过)(量)(化)(策)(略)(获)(得)(长)(期)(成)(功)(。量)(化)(基)(于)(模)(型)(,模)(型)(基)(于)(历)(史)(。当)(历)(史)(改)(变)(,就)(要)(换)(模)(型)(。
我)(们)(曾)(在)(上)(一)(轮)(周)(期)(中)(见)(证)(了)(这)(一)(点)(。《华)(尔)(街)(日)(报)(》引)(用)(一)(位)(量)(化)(经)(理)(的)(话)(,周)(三)(说)(当)(天)(是)(万)(年)(一)(遇)(的)(情)(况)(,周)(四)(又)(是)(万)(年)(一)(遇)(,周)(五)(还)(是)(万)(年)(一)(遇)(。于)(是)(周)(末)(有)(读)(者)(发)(来)(问)(题)(,“就)(想)(问)(,周)(一)(的)(话)(,我)(们)(未)(来)(三)(万)(年)(是)(不)(是)(都)(安)(全)(?”
所)(有)(这)(些)(策)(略)(都)(旨)(在)(增)(强)(或)(提)(供)(给)(你)(一)(种)(最)(小)(化)(风)(险)(和)(提)(高)(收)(益)(的)(方)(式)(。在)(美)(联)(储)(影)(响)(规)(模)(并)(扭)(曲)(资)(本)(市)(场)(信)(息)(的)(环)(境)(之)(中)(,利)(率)(可)(以)(降)(低)(到)(零)(,那)(预)(算)(或)(者)(资)(本)(分)(配)(决)(策)(的)(合)(适)(的)(最)(低)(预)(期)(资)(本)(回)(报)(率)(为)(多)(少)(?现)(在)(的)(市)(场)(环)(境)(是)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(价)(格)(数)(据)(都)(是)(扭)(曲)(的)(,价)(格)(发)(现)(功)(能)(也)(被)(高)(度)(扭)(曲)(。(这)(些)(行)(为)(让)(人)(非)(常)(不)(安)(。)
我)(在)(2008年)(写)(过)(一)(篇)(文)(章)(,那)(时)(美)(联)(储)(还)(没)(发)(现)(他)(们)(的)(财)(务)(状)(况)(产)(生)(了)(泡)(沫)(。他)(们)(表)(示)(将)(再)(注)(入)(至)(少)(1到)(1.5万)(亿)(的)(资)(金)(。那)(时)(他)(们)(还)(没)(意)(识)(到)(这)(一)(点)(。
我)(观)(察)(了)(美)(联)(储)(45年)(,只)(有)(PaulVolcker不)(错)(。在)(过)(去)(110年)(历)(史)(中)(,上)(一)(个)(杰)(出)(的)(央)(行)(首)(脑)(是)(J.P.Morgan。不)(同)(之)(处)(在)(于)(,摩)(根)(解)(决)(1907年)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(时)(候)(,用)(的)(是)(自)(己)(的)(钱)(。美)(联)(储)(的)(决)(策)(机)(制)(就)(像)(前)(苏)(联)(,既)(慢)(又)(容)(易)(出)(错)(。与)(所)(有)(大)(型)(机)(构)(一)(样)(,当)(面)(临)(内)(部)(压)(力)(需)(要)(达)(成)(一)(致)(的)(时)(候)(,一)(定)(不)(会)(产)(生)(伟)(大)(的)(决)(策)(。
问)(:如)(果)(有)(一)(个)(投)(资)(建)(议)(,你)(会)(给)(到)(刚)(入)(行)(的)(年)(轻)(人)(,那)(会)(是)(什)(么)(呢)(?
答)(:我)(会)(给)(出)(那)(个)(我)(在)(1973年)(青)(涩)(时)(期)(得)(到)(的)(建)(议)(。那)(时)(我)(入)(行)(才)(两)(年)(,有)(一)(位)(绅)(士)(在)(我)(的)(做)(投)(资)(的)(同)(仁)(们)(面)(前)(发)(表)(演)(讲)(。所)(有)(人)(都)(走)(后)(,我)(径)(直)(走)(向)(芒)(格)(先)(生)(并)(问)(道)(:“芒)(格)(先)(生)(,如)(果)(我)(只)(做)(一)(件)(事)(,就)(能)(成)(为)(比)(别)(人)(更)(优)(秀)(的)(投)(资)(行)(家)(,您)(有)(什)(么)(建)(议)(?”他)(回)(答)(“读)(历)(史)(,读)(历)(史)(,读)(历)(史)(”。这)(些)(年)(来)(我)(一)(直)(在)(践)(行)(。如)(果)(你)(了)(解)(1907年)(的)(金)(融)(危)(机)(,以)(及)(之)(前)(十)(九)(世)(纪)(九)(十)(年)(代)(发)(生)(的)(事)(情)(,你)(就)(不)(会)(对)(2007年)(毫)(无)(准)(备)(。
问)(:如)(果)(给)(同)(一)(个)(人)(管)(理)(方)(面)(的)(建)(议)(,您)(想)(说)(什)(么)(呢)(?
答)(:你)(必)(须)(拥)(有)(两)(样)(东)(西)(:纪)(律)(和)(正)(直)(。违)(背)(了)(其)(中)(任)(何)(一)(点)(,你)(都)(会)(失)(败)(。
问)(:但)(这)(在)(任)(何)(行)(业)(都)(一)(样)(啊)(?
答)(:是)(的)(,但)(是)(难)(在)(执)(行)(。因)(为)(人)(们)(会)(辩)(解)(说)(这)(次)(不)(一)(样)(。
世)(界)(变)(了)(。2001年)(时)(我)(为)(养)(老)(金)(顾)(问)(们)(做)(过)(一)(次)(演)(讲)(。我)(说)(,“你)(看)(,我)(们)(现)(在)(有)(人)(类)(史)(上)(最)(高)(水)(平)(的)(计)(算)(机)(技)(术)(,最)(及)(时)(的)(信)(息)(获)(取)(渠)(道)(,最)(多)(高)(学)(历)(人)(才)(从)(事)(这)(个)(行)(业)(,但)(是)(结)(果)(呢)(,并)(没)(有)(跟)(1974年)(,1929年)(,1907年)(的)(有)(什)(么)(不)(同)(”。
然)(后)(我)(举)(起)(手)(绘)(的)(两)(个)(简)(笔)(形)(象)(——画)(得)(不)(咋)(样)(——做)(演)(示)(,“有)(两)(头)(牛)(,他)(们)(在)(对)(话)(,其)(中)(一)(头)(牛)(说)(:“幸)(好)(我)(们)(不)(是)(牛)(群)(的)(一)(部)(分)(”。另)(一)(头)(答)(道)(:“是)(的)(呢)(”。紧)(接)(着)(的)(场)(景)(是)(从)(空)(中)(俯)(瞰)(,显)(示)(出)(这)(两)(头)(牛)(在)(一)(个)(溪)(谷)(里)(,他)(们)(只)(能)(看)(到)(对)(方)(。但)(他)(们)(周)(围)(都)(是)(牛)(群)(。所)(以)(,请)(记)(住)(,不)(管)(你)(意)(识)(到)(没)(有)(,你)(都)(是)(群)(体)(的)(一)(部)(分)(。你)(只)(需)(要)(懂)(得)(一)(个)(字)(,哞)(。”这)(是)(一)(种)(影)(响)(朋)(友)(和)(结)(交)(新)(客)(户)(的)(方)(式)(。
问)(:请)(说)(说)(您)(的)(个)(人)(资)(产)(的)(配)(置)(情)(况)(?
答)(:我)(的)(股)(票)(配)(置)(比)(例)(自)(1971年)(以)(来)(已)(降)(至)(最)(低)(,目)(前)(只)(占)(不)(到)(1%。流)(动)(资)(金)(占)(65%,全)(部)(为)(国)(库)(券)(型)(证)(券)(,不)(超)(过)(三)(年)(期)(限)(。其)(余)(是)(实)(物)(资)(产)(。
2009年)(底)(从)(日)(常)(资)(管)(事)(务)(抽)(身)(后)(,我)(休)(了)(个)(长)(假)(。我)(的)(目)(标)(之)(一)(就)(是)(去)(拜)(访)(DavidWalker先)(生)(,他)(是)(前)(美)(国)(总)(审)(计)(长)(。他)(写)(过)(一)(本)(书)(,叫)(《ComebackAmerica》。我)(在)(2010年)(1月)(读)(了)(这)(本)(书)(,并)(写)(了)(评)(论)(寄)(给)(他)(。两)(天)(后)(,Dave打)(来)(电)(话)(向)(我)(致)(谢)(。我)(们)(就)(是)(这)(样)(认)(识)(彼)(此)(的)(。我)(使)(用)(他)(的)(研)(究)(成)(果)(超)(过)(十)(年)(。在)(接)(下)(来)(的)(三)(年)(半)(时)(间)(里)(,我)(是)(他)(的)(项)(目)(——ComebackAmerica的)(赞)(助)(人)(。在)(2013年)(,这)(个)(项)(目)(以)(彻)(底)(失)(败)(告)(终)(。
想)(想)(2011年)(的)(预)(算)(大)(战)(,唯)(一)(被)(削)(减)(的)(是)(国)(防)(经)(费)(。被)(削)(减)(下)(来)(的)(开)(支)(的)(三)(分)(之)(二)(将)(置)(于)(财)(政)(系)(统)(控)(制)(之)(下)(,但)(要)(等)(到)(2016年)(后)(。这)(事)(儿)(,真)(挺)(逗)(!在)(历)(届)(总)(统)(辩)(论)(中)(,只)(有)(一)(位)(候)(选)(人)(使)(用)(过)(的)(一)(个)(单)(词)(至)(今)(仍)(留)(在)(英)(语)(语)(言)(中)(,就)(是)(“隔)(离)(”一)(词)(。是)(布)(什)(总)(统)(提)(出)(的)(,为)(了)(消)(除)(隔)(离)(,要)(增)(加)(国)(防)(开)(支)(。
2016年)(的)(总)(统)(选)(举)(是)(过)(去)(80多)(年)(来)(最)(重)(要)(的)(选)(举)(之)(一)(。早)(在)(2009年)(我)(就)(说)(过)(,如)(果)(我)(们)(不)(能)(在)(2014—2018年)(间)(将)(经)(济)(问)(题)(处)(理)(好)(,我)(们)(可)(能)(将)(面)(临)(一)(场)(与)(2007—2009年)(相)(比)(有)(过)(之)(而)(无)(不)(及)(的)(危)(机)(。我)(还)(指)(出)(,就)(我)(眼)(力)(所)(及)(,我)(们)(可)(能)(迎)(来)(经)(济)(弱)(复)(苏)(,实)(际)(GDP增)(速)(不)(会)(超)(过)(2%。生)(产)(率)(与)(资)(本)(支)(出)(会)(非)(常)(低)(。那)(些)(都)(玩)(脱)(了)(。
现)(在)(已)(经)(是)(2017年)(了)(,没)(有)(任)(何)(迹)(象)(能)(让)(我)(确)(信)(华)(盛)(顿)(方)(面)(将)(采)(取)(一)(致)(行)(动)(。我)(们)(正)(处)(于)(赤)(字)(扩)(张)(的)(时)(期)(,由)(政)(府)(经)(费)(保)(障)(的)(福)(利)(正)(日)(益)(恶)(化)(。我)(们)(正)(进)(入)(前)(所)(未)(有)(的)(十)(年)(,美)(国)(历)(史)(上)(还)(从)(未)(实)(行)(过)(这)(样)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(和)(财)(政)(政)(策)(。
我)(为)(啥)(要)(把)(钱)(投)(资)(在)(这)(么)(一)(个)(体)(系)(里)(——规)(模)(完)(全)(被)(操)(纵)(,价)(格)(发)(现)(被)(扭)(曲)(,而)(美)(联)(储)(却)(不)(知)(道)(现)(在)(究)(竟)(是)(什)(么)(状)(况)(。他)(们)(一)(连)(错)(失)(了)(过)(去)(9年)(的)(经)(济)(预)(测)(。我)(们)(还)(犯)(得)(着)(关)(心)(他)(们)(在)(干)(嘛)(吗)(?
我)(很)(确)(信)(一)(件)(事)(,美)(联)(储)(会)(搞)(砸)(。
我)(的)(想)(法)(与)(LacyHunt的)(非)(常)(相)(似)(。但)(我)(们)(在)(崩)(溃)(发)(生)(后)(接)(下)(来)(会)(发)(生)(什)(么)(这)(一)(点)(上)(产)(生)(了)(分)(歧)(。他)(会)(争)(辩)(说)(,我)(们)(将)(迎)(来)(一)(段)(较)(长)(时)(间)(的)(通)(货)(紧)(缩)(或)(通)(货)(紧)(缩)(时)(期)(,因)(此)(,你)(应)(该)(持)(有)(30年)(期)(和)(20年)(期)(的)(美)(国)(国)(债)(。
对)(于)(这)(种)(情)(况)(,我)(不)(是)(太)(确)(定)(。这)(种)(情)(况)(曾)(在)(日)(本)(发)(生)(过)(,因)(为)(日)(本)(社)(会)(具)(有)(高)(度)(的)(凝)(聚)(力)(。美)(国)(与)(欧)(洲)(可)(不)(一)(样)(。我)(们)(的)(耐)(心)(要)(短)(的)(多)(。在)(某)(些)(时)(候)(,不)(超)(过)(1-2年)(,美)(联)(储)(多)(半)(就)(会)(恐)(慌)(,待)(恐)(慌)(至)(极)(,我)(们)(就)(会)(看)(到)(更)(疯)(狂)(的)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(和)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(。Lacy和)(我)(在)(这)(一)(点)(上)(意)(见)(一)(致)(,即)(真)(正)(的)(大)(问)(题)(是)(这)(个)(烂)(摊)(子)(的)(另)(一)(面)(,后)(果)(是)(什)(么)(?我)(们)(两)(个)(的)(看)(法)(可)(能)(非)(常)(正)(确)(,也)(可)(能)(极)(端)(错)(误)(,或)(者)(介)(于)(二)(者)(之)(间)(。
我)(目)(前)(采)(用)(对)(冲)(的)(方)(式)(管)(理)(自)(己)(的)(资)(产)(,因)(为)(我)(们)(正)(在)(经)(历)(的)(情)(况)(是)(在)(人)(类)(历)(史)(上)(都)(没)(有)(先)(例)(的)(。谁)(又)(能)(有)(信)(心)(说)(自)(己)(的)(看)(法)(就)(是)(正)(确)(的)(呢)(?返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
)


相关文章

版权所有:南方新闻网 粤ICP备05070829 网站标识码4400000131
主办:南方新闻网 协办:广东省经济和信息化委员会 承办:南方新闻网
建议使用1024×768分辨率 IE7.0以上版本浏览器